Using Data Analysis to Predict the Future

Print PDF Guest post by Zach Sachen Your ability to predict the future is relative to the knowledge you have and what you do with it when compared to your competitors. If competitors do not have access to the same knowledge at the same time as you, to them you are essentially predicting the future. For example, if you know before your competitors that a consumer trend is emerging, and you act on it, you […]

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Round in circles on enterprise-architecture

One of the real pleasures of enterprise-architecture is that it covers the entire panoramic panoply of the enterprise, the many ways in which everyone and everything can work together towards a shared goal, creating a common bridge from Why to How to What and When and Where and Who.
One of its huge frustrations, though, is […]

A real example of the dangers of ‘EA’ not covering Enterprise Systems

I have a real example of the problems of IT-focused EA with a client. #entarch #bcdesign Their IT team are wrestling with the requirements to modify IT systems within the context of a very large business change programme. The problem is that there is a disconnect between the feature and function aspects of the IT change and the ende2end business process perspective of the change. The latter includes all the human ‘systems’ that must adopt the change. Without a holistic view it is impossible to know if the piecemeal changes planned within the IT space in fact are correct and, more worryingly, whether they might introduce unintended consequences. Moreover, the way ‘the business’ has specified the changes they want from  IT have tended to ignore ‘failure demand’ and are ‘happy path’ centric. There was once a time when an Industrial Engineering team might’ve picked up this joining-up of people, process and technology, ( although that tended to focus more on Six Simga than Adoption, Trust  and Value Systems)  but it seems these days this is left with the CIO to figure-out. So this leads me to support  Tom Graves’ PoV that EA should cover all aspects of business change because if it doesn’t I don’t know who will!  More about here: 

http://www.5dinnovation.com/5Di/Business%20Change%20Design.html

(typos fixed)

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Black Swans and Complex System Failure

Black Swan theory (Wikipedia) tells us among other things that people tend to underestimate the probability of extremely rare events.

A corollary of this theory that is of particular interest to architects and complex system engineers concerns the des…