2013: The year the Internet-of-Things takes-off?

I’ve been reading a lot about M2M/’The Internet of Things’, many pundits believe 2013 will be the year the concept finally goes mainstream – it’s been a while since its inception in the late ‘90s!

I have to say I’m among those believers, but I can see a lot of dust in the air before we get to anything that might resemble a ubiquitous eco-system for all-things-Smart.  Here are a few reasons why:
  1. Open standards for connectivity and data interchange will take a while to agree. Having said that, I don’t think Businesses and Consumers will want to see proprietary platforms (the nightmarish vision of an ‘ITunes-for-M2M’)!
  2. Object Identity standards: Everyone seems to be talking about IP v6 for this purpose, very few in the ‘new wave’ of M2M seem to be aware of the Electronic Product Code(EPC)  from GS1/EPCGlobal. I’ve not been close to EPC developments since 2004, but a lot of good thinking was done that tackled many of the issues yet to be resolved in the M2M world – not the least of which, delineation between the identity of the object and the identity of an object’s interface(s) – a debate that continues around the use of IPv6 for identity.
  3. Who will lead the M2M market? Or should it be markets? Will it be consumers leading with ‘Home & Personal’ gadgets , as Alex Hawkinson, founder/CEO of http://smartthings.com/  believes. Or could it be led by large Energy providers with their Smart Grid projects – often subsidized and encouraged by governments? Or will the Telco’s and Network equipment guys to fight back?  Many telcos (mostly outside the US) have been dabbling in this space for ten years or more – I worked with BT on an early Auto ID service back in 2003. Some Telcos have continued to invest, for example; Telefonica recently announced their proprietary ‘Smart M2M’ solution and clearly have global ambitions in M2M services. Meanwhile, the likes of Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, HP, Juniper Networks, Motorola Mobility, Qualcomm, Samsung and Texas Instruments are rallying around the OneM2M movement (http://www.onem2m.org). Not to forget Cisco’s long standing ambitions in this space.
  4. Who will lead Enterprise-quality data integration? This would probably include correlation, aggregation and other, signal-based & enterprise app generated data. Think multi-source, data ‘mash-up’ services. This feels to me that this could be the sweet-spot for the more ‘application-and-data-as-a-service’ focused Cloud vendors. Or could be a SI or large software vendor play (SAP or Oracle spring to mind).
  5. Which roles will the Complex Event Processing (CEP) platform vendors adopt in the M2M eco-system? How far can we expect the likes of TIBCO, Oracle and IBM to push M2M/CEP/Big Data combinations within the Enterprise?
But despite the above challenges and battles yet to be won, I do believe we will see far greater deployment of ‘Smart’ things over the next 12-24 months than at any time since those early days of Auto-ID. My bet is that both Smart Grid and consumer-led lifestyle solutions will lead the early adopters.  Don’t, however, hold your breath for pan-industry standards at anything above low-level communications protocols!

2013: The year the Internet-of-Things takes-off?

I’ve been reading a lot about M2M/’The Internet of Things’, many pundits believe 2013 will be the year the concept finally goes mainstream – it’s been a while since its inception in the late ‘90s!

I have to say I’m among those believers, but I can see a lot of dust in the air before we get to anything that might resemble a ubiquitous eco-system for all-things-Smart.  Here are a few reasons why:
  1. Open standards for connectivity and data interchange will take a while to agree. Having said that, I don’t think Businesses and Consumers will want to see proprietary platforms (the nightmarish vision of an ‘ITunes-for-M2M’)!
  2. Object Identity standards: Everyone seems to be talking about IP v6 for this purpose, very few in the ‘new wave’ of M2M seem to be aware of the Electronic Product Code(EPC)  from GS1/EPCGlobal. I’ve not been close to EPC developments since 2004, but a lot of good thinking was done that tackled many of the issues yet to be resolved in the M2M world – not the least of which, delineation between the identity of the object and the identity of an object’s interface(s) – a debate that continues around the use of IPv6 for identity.
  3. Who will lead the M2M market? Or should it be markets? Will it be consumers leading with ‘Home & Personal’ gadgets , as Alex Hawkinson, founder/CEO of http://smartthings.com/  believes. Or could it be led by large Energy providers with their Smart Grid projects – often subsidized and encouraged by governments? Or will the Telco’s and Network equipment guys to fight back?  Many telcos (mostly outside the US) have been dabbling in this space for ten years or more – I worked with BT on an early Auto ID service back in 2003. Some Telcos have continued to invest, for example; Telefonica recently announced their proprietary ‘Smart M2M’ solution and clearly have global ambitions in M2M services. Meanwhile, the likes of Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, HP, Juniper Networks, Motorola Mobility, Qualcomm, Samsung and Texas Instruments are rallying around the OneM2M movement (http://www.onem2m.org). Not to forget Cisco’s long standing ambitions in this space.
  4. Who will lead Enterprise-quality data integration? This would probably include correlation, aggregation and other, signal-based & enterprise app generated data. Think multi-source, data ‘mash-up’ services. This feels to me that this could be the sweet-spot for the more ‘application-and-data-as-a-service’ focused Cloud vendors. Or could be a SI or large software vendor play (SAP or Oracle spring to mind).
  5. Which roles will the Complex Event Processing (CEP) platform vendors adopt in the M2M eco-system? How far can we expect the likes of TIBCO, Oracle and IBM to push M2M/CEP/Big Data combinations within the Enterprise?
But despite the above challenges and battles yet to be won, I do believe we will see far greater deployment of ‘Smart’ things over the next 12-24 months than at any time since those early days of Auto-ID. My bet is that both Smart Grid and consumer-led lifestyle solutions will lead the early adopters.  Don’t, however, hold your breath for pan-industry standards at anything above low-level communications protocols!

Enterprise Architecture – Death by Meta Models

Last week I absolutely astounded having read a project report for a follow on Enterprise Architecture engagement that a former colleague had undertaken after I had previously set up the Enterprise Framework and the strategic direction for engagement wi…

Enterprise Architecture – Death by Meta Models

Last week I absolutely astounded having read a project report for a follow on Enterprise Architecture engagement that a former colleague had undertaken after I had previously set up the Enterprise Framework and the strategic direction for engagement wi…

Categories Uncategorized

The Project Business Model Results

This post is the third in a series of ten about real life experiences of using business model thinking as a foundation for planning and delivering change. Writing this post I’ve had the help of a true friend and admirable colleague (Eva Kammerfors) whom I’ve shared many of the referred to business model experiences with. […]

Danish metamodels

My Danish friends @gotze and @aojensen comment on the latest release of OIO EA, which is a national enterprise architecture framework and meta-model published by the Danish Government Agency for Digitization.

Both John and Anders feel that certain key artefacts have been placed at the wrong layer of abstraction. John writes

“In my view, Business Rules should not be located at the strategic level at all. I would argue that Business Rules primarily “belongs” to the Business sub-architecture domain.”

What is the basis for this argument? Anders points out a consequence

“business rules are located in the government strategy layer and thus tightly coupled to the long term vision of the government agency”

“Business rules are operationalisations of the long term strategy and strategic intent.
Whilst the vision, mission, and purpose of the enterprise do not change very often (i.e. provide the best available services our citizens), the business rules and processes involved in realising this will definitely change.”

and therefore

“Business rules belong in the business architecture.”

Thus Anders is basing his argument on a statement about the frequency of certain classes of change.

This statement appears to be empirically testable, although I know from my own experience that it is a lot difficult than one might think to gather data to test this kind of statement.

Part of the problem of measuring rates of change is that we don’t have a particularly robust theory of change in the first place. Let’s look at an example. From time to time, perhaps every year, Steve Ballmer restates the vision of Microsoft. Obviously he doesn’t use exactly the same words every year. And of course Microsoft-watchers will seek to interpret even the slightest change of wording or emphasis as a sign of a strategic change in direction. So even if Ballmer himself insists that the vision hasn’t changed, we might not believe him. Looking back in time, we might find that major changes in direction had already been hinted at in previous years. So at what point does an apparently minor change in wording become a substantially new vision?

Conversely, when a company has been exposed as unethical, the CEO will go public with an apology and an assertion of a new ethical vision. (Recent example: Barclays Bank.) We might not believe him either.

In both cases, we will probably judge whether there is a new vision or not by observing whether the company behaviour and rules changes or not. (And this is not just external observers – Microsoft and Barclays employees and managers are also making these judgements.) So the rate of change of vision might be epistemologically indistinguishable from the rate of change of behaviour.

However, despite the difficulties in conceptualizing and measuring change, I think it does make sense to derive architectural layers from the idea that certain things have a characteristic rate of change, and that things with a different rate of change should be in different layers. This means that there is at least a possibility of subjecting an architecture to empirical evaluation. I have published this idea in articles for the CBDI Forum, and suggested that architectural theory needs to be based on the Pace Layering principle

In contrast, Anders’ appeal to the IAF seems to be purely an argument from authority. The IAF establishes some “fundamental” categories, and so any framework that deviates from these categories must be wrong. I think this line of argumentation is weaker. Even though you may assert some attractive consequences of following IAF, I cannot see any reason for believing that these consequences follow only from IAF and not from any rival framework.

Frameworks and categories may be embedded in metamodels. But how do we know what is the basis for choosing between alternative metamodels?

John Gøtze, Metamodels (January 2013)
Anders Ø. Jensen, Enterprise Architecture and abstraction layers (February 2013)

Ethics, Barclays and totalitarianism (Catholic Commentary January 2013)
Barclays boss tells staff ‘sign up to ethics or leave’ (BBC News January 2013)
Did Barclays suffer an Ethics Meltdown? (CSR Zone, July 2012)
Sure Kamhunga, Barclays to re-examine its core values(October 2012)
Naven Johal, Barclay’s Does Something Right! (January 2013)

Updated 29 April 2013

OpenText Smart Process Applications: The Importance of Process On-Ramps and Off-Ramps

Have you ever used your fingernail to turn a screw or the heel of your shoe to hammer a nail? I thought so.  Didn’t work out so well did it? You used a workaround because, at the time, you didn’t have the right tool for the job. It’s the same thing when certain dynamic processes […]

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