Link: http://www.etc-architect.com/?p=90
From ETC-Architect » IT Architect Global | , Global | Infrastructure Architect, Global
Looking into the future is something that we as humans always will due as our brain is designed around predictions to stay sane, at least as long as we are healthy we block certain possibilities out of our mind and we have the tendency to fantasise about some great things. Most architects will usually have some ‘messiah’ fantasies as they usually belong in the alpha segment of society. So if you are thinking that in a few years you will the top architect it is absolute OK. This tendency usually helps us to be thought leaders as well and makes us attractive to others, a thing that we enjoy.
All that is healthy, as long as we understand what we are doing and that we err in the same way as others. The problem of predicting the future is however that we are only able to do this build on probability, unless you go in the metaphysical. Once you enter the metaphysical you will still be able to hide it from society in calling it experience, but you will need to be extra careful. Since predictions build on scientific probability are usually too time consuming and restraint as you will only be able to detect the speed of something existing in adaptation, not what will emerge new, virtually all of the futurologists or analysts of prediction are usually relying on the metaphysical sights of others and by asking enough of them calling it a science. Or to put it in more blunt words it means magic and divine revelations are stupid, but if an analyst asks 1000 wizards and prophets about the same thing it is suddenly scientific and it can be used by anyone for creating a roadmap.
So most roadmaps are actually build on this apart from some elements of current projects that are already underway, but even there success is still a possibility. The problem when building roadmaps as opposed to project plans that only represent a possible prediction (and therefore are usually wrong in terms of timing something that was never done before) is that we are actually encapsulating divine revelations or magic. The problem however is that we sell it as science and that to my mind you could call stupid.
