Link: http://www.etc-architect.com/?p=161
From ETC-Architect » IT Architect Global | IT Architect, Global | Data Architect, Global
I am not sure on how well you are still up to stats these days so let me first remind you that the regression towards the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement and if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.
Now this phenomenon is often used in sports to explain why it is unlikely that a player emerging with a great new way to play will slow down to the average and is often wrongly quite as an argument why we are getting poorer. However here I am looking at the impact in our field of architecture. In architecture we often have great initiatives towards a best practice and great architects developing their own genius ways approaching a certain subject.
Now regardless of how good the practice is the overall affect on architecture is small as the regression towards the mean does not only mean that we can implement it ones and then it will move again back towards the the mean of the bad average, but since from the point we start with a best practice until it is implemented you will have that many steps involved that the regression towards the mean has usually happened before something is implemented. So this is why at the end most architecture always looks the same.
Now since this would really kill of any real progress towards anything new which is really sad there is trend that works counter in some areas. If you take the development of open source software (OSS) you will find that often there are only a very few people involved in the decision and that is also why you will have less of a regression to mean in that area. The same of course also applies in industry if you have a very charismatic strong willed non-team player. If however the changes or innovations happening in these circumstances are a move to the wrong side such persons will be sidelined and a regression towards the mean will happen again. So the curse of a strong willed individual is that he always needs to be right while his average counterpart can use the regression towards the means as a mean to cover up for his bloopers.
However the really hardest bit of any real change has to do with the change of business processes as this is always an area where the devil is in the detail and as such a lot of people are involved with a strong force of regression towards the mean. This is also why when I describe business processes I tend to focus more on examples and stories to change things in the small rather then to try to do a change by an overall big change toward revolutionising a whole Level 0 process or value stream as others like to call it as the focus on the detail is another way to combat the regression towards the mean.
