13 years, 9 months ago

Future State First, Current State Last

Link: http://blogs.gartner.com/philip-allega/2010/08/24/future-state-first-current-state-last/

Leo de Sousa shared a blog that covered his experience of doing the current state first, supporting Adrian Grigoriu’s response to my posting last week entitled Applying EA to Your Life .  I do, in fact, support the contention that current state is an “input to gap analysis” and is “useful for benchmarking”, but I would like to respectfully contest the following notions, according to Adrian:

  • “The target architecture cannot be established based on Vision alone, or
  • It is not practical or economically viable to start from tabula rasa each and every time you implement a new strategy.”

Indeed, I would suggest that no target can be created without a vision and, further, that the vision must be based upon the desired future state of the business that comes from a greenfield or tabula rosa exercise.

Why? Because any other vision or any other target state has an incorrect context and does not set the target market correctly, against which all gap closure efforts will be judged.

A little secret here: you never reach the target state.  Why? Because you will reset the target state as environmental attributes change (technology trends, macroeconomic trends, competitive trends, internal trends), meaning that the last vision is now out of date and a new marker must be laid down to work against.

I also appreciate the following comment:

No one will invite you to make comment or participate in strategic planning activities if your own house is not in order (or at least you have a plan in place)

Exactly.  But, documenting your current mess does not make a plan.  Getting your house in order is what EA is all about, but under what context?  Because of what?  For what purpose, what reason?

Do you want an uncluttered future?  Do you want less complexity?  Do you want to support new business capabilities? Why? When?

I contend that you cannot answer these questions WITHOUT understanding where you want to be.  Never-ending inventory exercises have proven fruitless. Determine where you want to be first in order to determine which parts of your “house” have to be put in order in able to reach the target state

A vision based upon current restrictions limits the truly desired future state.

I noted in my blog, “Applying EA to Your Life“, that:

In the paper “Causal Reasoning in the Context of Future Thinking” by Cristina M. Atance and Andrew N. Meltzoff, at the Center for Mind, Brain & Learning at the  University of Washington, the researcher created an experiment that proves that knowing your current state invades judgments about the future state (seehttp://ilabs.washington.edu/meltzoff/pubsposters/AtanceMeltzoffSRCD2003.pdf).

It is counteintuitive for many, and as evidenced by a recent spate of tweets and blogs over this contention of “future state first” to, indeed, do the “future state first”.

An instructive story comes from the IT organization and CIO who believed, mistakenly, that the reduction of complexity, consolidation of all IT systems and removal of redundancies were the correct approach to save the IT organization money within their budget. Oh, sure, that worked. The IT organization saved money and, over time, complexity (in the eyes of IT) and redundancies (as the IT organization saw them) were removed.

The end result?  When the business decided to sell off a low-performing business they discovered that the duplication of all the associated infrastructure, applications and systems cost more than the value of the business itself.  The CIO was immediately FIRED.

Why?  Because no one bothered to understand the future state desires of the business.  No one confirmed that the assumptions made about the IT budget reflected the future state needs of the business.  Obviously, they hadn’t engaged EA properly.

I am NOT saying that there’s no value in having knowledge about the current state, I am saying that the current state is not the starting point in an EA effort.

My post originally came from the challenges of a particular friend.  In support of that friend, another wrote:

Things are the way they are today because of the decisions we have made in the past. But just because they are that way today, does not dictate the future of how things will be tomorrow.

I liked this quote because she recognized that where we are right now is not indicative of the resulting future.  She is not encumbered by the current state when considering the future.

Document your current state? Yes, but after you have defined a context under which you can judge the fitness of the current state and plan to close the gaps against the target state.