A lot of work that we do as architects is based on our judgement of interacting with stakeholders and therefore we try estimate the level of their confidence in terms of priority.The problem of being confident is that any person confident will rate their answers as 99 % true, while those without confidence will only rate theirs true in 2 % of the cases, In real life people usually score 60 % of their output as true and 40 % false. This 60:40 ration is even without deceit, it is just the way we are build.
For all architects, but especially for all enterprise and business architects it is important to therefore know how often people are wrong despite of their confidence. However it must also be said that architects themselves often suffer from over-precision where The architect does not only belief to be true in 99 % of the cases, but also always precise in any related calculations or engineering.
Finally every architect who is aware of his own intellect and experience is likely to be caught by the “best in my group” syndrome or straight over-placement often forgetting that the others may be better in an adjacent area very important for the bigger picture. We all need to avoid falling for that Napoleon patter.